By Mukhtar Sagir Dambatta
The growing divisions within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kano could undermine President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election prospects unless urgent reconciliation efforts are undertaken.
The political disagreements involving Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau Jibrin; House of Representatives member, Abubakar Kabir Bichi; and Deputy Governor, Alhaji Murtala Sule Garo, have raised concerns about the party’s ability to maintain a united political front.
The situation is particularly significant because Kano recorded 5,921,370 registered voters in the 2023 general elections, making it one of Nigeria’s most important electoral battlegrounds.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 5,594,193 voters collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), representing a collection rate of 94.4 per cent.
With 44 local government areas, 484 registration areas and 11,222 polling units, Kano presents a major electoral opportunity for any political party capable of sustaining effective grassroots mobilisation.
The emerging disagreements within the APC therefore raise questions about whether the party can preserve its political structures ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Barau’s political structure remains influential
Senator Barau Jibrin, who represents Kano North Senatorial District, remains one of the most influential politicians in the state’s APC structure.
As Deputy President of the Senate, he enjoys considerable national political influence and maintains relationships with serving and former public officeholders.
His political network includes Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, Yusuf Abdullahi Ata; former commissioners, former members of the House of Representatives, local government chairmen and other political stakeholders.
The network gives Barau considerable influence, particularly across Kano North, where political relationships and grassroots mobilisation could determine the outcome of the 2027 elections.
His inauguration of a Kano North APC campaign council involving serving and former political officeholders, local government stakeholders and ward-level mobilisers also demonstrates that his political machinery remains active.
However, the strength of a political structure is not measured only by the number of officeholders associated with it, but also by their loyalty and commitment.
Reports of political realignments and changing allegiances have raised questions about whether all established networks will remain intact.
Murtala Garo and the emerging political calculations
Deputy Governor Murtala Sule Garo is another central figure in the evolving political situation.
Garo has extensive experience in Kano politics, having served as a local government chairman, Chairman of the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON) in Kano, Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs, and APC deputy governorship candidate in 2023.
His emergence as deputy governor followed consultations among APC stakeholders after the resignation of former Deputy Governor Abdussalam Gwarzo.
The selection process exposed differences among influential party figures, with competing interests emerging over the choice of nominee.
Garo’s current position gives him an important role in maintaining political relationships within the state government and the APC.
His political camp also has connections with established stakeholders, including former Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo.
The involvement of such figures makes the current situation more consequential than an ordinary disagreement between individual politicians.
Political realignments raise fresh concerns
One of the developments attracting attention within Kano APC is the reported resignation of some political appointees and supporters from positions associated with Barau’s political structure, followed by renewed alignment with Abubakar Kabir Bichi’s camp and the pursuit of new political appointments.
Although the individual cases and numbers require further verification, the development points to the changing nature of political loyalty ahead of the next election.
Political appointments are often important instruments of mobilisation, particularly in a state where local government and ward structures play significant roles in electioneering.
When influential individuals begin changing political camps, the implications can extend to their supporters, associates and established grassroots networks.
For Barau, the challenge is to retain the confidence of his political associates while maintaining his influence within the wider APC structure.
For Bichi and other stakeholders, the emerging realignments could strengthen their political influence, provided they maintain stable relationships with other power centres.
However, continued competition without effective reconciliation could weaken the party collectively.
Why Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf must intervene
Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf occupies a strategic position in the unfolding situation and should take a leading role in preventing the disagreements from escalating.
As governor, he has the political responsibility and institutional influence to bring competing stakeholders together.
His intervention should go beyond appeals for unity or public declarations of loyalty.
It should involve direct consultations with Barau, Bichi, Garo, Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo, former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and other influential party leaders.
The objective should be to establish a workable political understanding that recognises the interests of different camps while protecting the collective electoral strength of the APC.
The governor’s intervention is particularly important because the disagreements could affect the party’s ability to coordinate political appointments, grassroots mobilisation and campaign activities.
A similar reconciliation effort should also involve the APC national leadership to prevent competing ambitions from damaging the party’s preparations for 2027.
Kano’s three senatorial districts and the electoral stakes
Kano’s electoral strength is distributed across three senatorial districts comprising 44 local government areas.
Kano North
Kano North comprises 13 local government areas and is represented by Barau Jibrin.
The district is a major APC political base, with established networks involving federal lawmakers, former commissioners, local government chairmen and grassroots organisers.
However, the reported movement of some political mobilisers away from Barau’s camp demonstrates the vulnerability of political structures when grievances remain unresolved.
The opposition could benefit if such movements continue and become coordinated across several local government areas.
Kano Central
Kano Central comprises 15 local government areas and is represented by Senator Rufai Sani Hanga.
The district’s urban population, commercial activities and political awareness make it a critical electoral battleground.
Economic conditions, employment, public infrastructure and the performance of government are likely to influence voters.
A divided APC could struggle to coordinate its message, while opposition parties could exploit the situation through stronger grassroots engagement.
Kano South
Kano South comprises 16 local government areas and is represented by Senator Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila.
The district has demonstrated its capacity to produce competitive electoral outcomes, including the NNPP’s senatorial victory in 2023.
Its geographical spread and established political networks make it important to both the ruling party and opposition.
The APC must therefore avoid internal disagreements that could weaken its mobilisation across the district.
Opposition parties may find an opening
The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) remains a significant political force in Kano, while other opposition platforms could also benefit from the ruling party’s internal disagreements.
The opposition’s greatest opportunity may not necessarily come from winning over traditional APC supporters individually, but from exploiting the failure of competing political camps to work together.
If aggrieved party members withdraw from campaign activities, refuse to support certain candidates or move to opposition platforms, the APC could lose valuable grassroots networks.
The situation could also affect voter turnout among party supporters.
However, an opposition victory is not guaranteed. It would depend on candidate credibility, alliances, effective mobilisation and the ability to address voters’ concerns.
Tinubu’s re-election calculations
For President Tinubu, Kano represents a major political investment that should not be left to competing interests within the state APC.
The 2023 voter register recorded 5,921,370 registered voters, with 5,594,193 PVCs collected.
These figures provide a verified baseline for understanding the state’s electoral importance, although the final register for the 2027 elections may change.
The political implication remains clear: even a shift in voter mobilisation across Kano’s districts could affect the presidential contest.
Tinubu’s political strategy in Kano must therefore combine party reconciliation with a convincing explanation of his administration’s policies and achievements.
Economic hardship, food prices, employment, education, security and infrastructure will remain important issues for voters.
Even a reconciled APC could face difficulties if it fails to address these concerns.
The cost of ignoring internal divisions
The APC should recognise that political structures are strongest when their members believe they have a meaningful stake in the party.
Allowing disagreements to continue without a clear resolution could create parallel political arrangements, resentment and weakened campaign coordination.
The party’s national leadership, particularly its National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, should support Governor Yusuf’s reconciliation efforts and ensure that the Kano situation receives urgent attention.
The responsibility should not rest on one individual or political camp.
Barau, Bichi, Garo and other stakeholders must recognise that their individual political ambitions are ultimately tied to the collective performance of the party.
Conclusion
Kano’s political history shows that electoral dominance cannot be sustained through influential personalities alone.
It requires unity, organisation, credible leadership and the ability to maintain the confidence of grassroots supporters.
The current disagreements involving Barau Jibrin, Abubakar Kabir Bichi, Murtala Sule Garo and other APC stakeholders should therefore be treated as an early warning ahead of 2027.
Barau’s political network remains influential, but the reported realignments and growing competition for political relevance demonstrate the need for urgent engagement.
Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf has an important opportunity to prevent the situation from deteriorating through genuine reconciliation and inclusive political management.
For Tinubu, the message is straightforward: Kano cannot be taken for granted.
If the APC fails to manage its internal differences, the opposition could turn the party’s political strength into an electoral vulnerability.
Dambatta is a Journalist and Author, write from Abuja.
About The Author
