By Abdullahi Inuwa
As Nigeria’s political machinery quietly gears up for the 2027 general elections, all eyes are on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the subtle recalibration of his political alliances chief among them, the emerging courtship of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, former Kano State governor and leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Speculation is swirling that Tinubu is working behind the scenes to bring Kwankwaso into his fold. While some interpret this as a tactical move to consolidate support in the North, others view it as a shallow, transactional alliance aimed squarely at mining votes from Kano and its environs.
“If Tinubu gets Kwankwaso on board, it’ll be purely for the northern votes,” said a northern political analyst familiar with the negotiations. “Kwankwaso’s strength lies almost entirely in Kano. That’s where he secured his one million votes in 2023. Outside that state, his appeal is limited.”
This scepticism reflects a growing unease among political observers who question both Kwankwaso’s national traction and Tinubu’s motives.
The Northern Vote Equation
No Nigerian president has ever emerged without significant support from the North. The region’s population size and voter turnout make it a decisive factor in any national election. President Tinubu, a seasoned political tactician, understands this deeply.
His overtures to Kwankwaso are seen as part of a broader bid to splinter the northern opposition and gain strategic leverage. With the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) struggling to maintain a foothold in the North, and the NNPP viewed largely as a regional force, Tinubu may see Kwankwaso as a useful bridge, a northern face for his southern-led political machine.
But critics caution that the strategy may be more symbolic than substantive.
Kwankwaso’s Limited Reach
There’s no denying Kwankwaso’s grip on Kano. Through the Kwankwasiyya movement, he has built a loyal, even fanatical following. His 2023 performance, which yielded over a million votes in Kano, is a testament to that.
But outside Kano, his influence is patchy at best. In northern states like Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Borno, he lacks the political infrastructure and ground game of rivals in the APC and PDP.
“He’s a local champion, not a national heavyweight,” noted
Professor Amina Garba of Ahmadu Bello University. “Kwankwaso might deliver Kano, but Kano alone doesn’t win a presidency. Tinubu knows that. Any partnership here would be for electoral window-dressing, not long-term political alliance.”
A Marriage of Convenience?
The prospect of a Tinubu-Kwankwaso pact has sparked lively debate among political insiders. Many believe such an alliance would be one of necessity, not shared vision.
Sources suggest Tinubu’s interest is rooted in electoral arithmetic, not ideological compatibility.
Meanwhile, Kwankwaso, still nursing presidential ambitions, may be wary of becoming a political pawn.
Stylistically, the two men are worlds apart. Tinubu is calculated and pragmatic; Kwankwaso is fiery and populist.
“It’s hard to imagine a genuine partnership here,” said Kaduna-based analyst Bashir Yahuza. “Tinubu doesn’t share power; he consolidates it. Kwankwaso doesn’t play second fiddle. This looks more like a temporary handshake or a political landmine waiting to explode.”
The Risk of Misjudging the North
Some analysts warn that Tinubu’s reliance on a narrow northern alliance could backfire. By elevating Kwankwaso as a northern power broker, the president may alienate other influential actors governors, traditional rulers, and grassroots mobilizers who view Kwankwaso as politically marginal beyond Kano.
“Tinubu must tread carefully,” advised Sule Musa, a veteran political journalist. “If he miscalculates and assumes Kwankwaso equals the North, he could repeat the PDP’s 2015 mistake overlooking the complex layers of northern political identity and losing key blocs in the process.”
2027 and the Northern Balance
As Tinubu charts his course toward 2027, the urgency to secure a solid northern alliance, whether in the form of a running mate or power-sharing arrangement, is undeniable. Kwankwaso may offer a short-term boost in Kano, but many argue that a broader coalition with more widely accepted northern figures would serve Tinubu better.
Kwankwaso, for his part, faces his dilemma: Does he risk his brand and credibility by aligning with a southern power centre that may not accommodate his long-term political aspirations?
The Bottom Line
Kwankwaso brings Kano, but Tinubu needs the North. Whether their rumoured alliance proves to be a game-changer or political theatre depends on how far either man is willing to go and what they’re prepared to sacrifice.
In the high-stakes chessboard of Nigerian politics, this may be one gamble too many or a masterstroke in disguise.
End
Abdullahi Inuwa Social Commentator ainuwa303@gmail.com
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