By Abdullahi Alhassan, Kaduna
The Transition Monitoring Group TMG has released a critical report on Nigeria’s 2023 election cycle, asserting that the electoral process seriously damaged the reputation of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary, raising profound concerns about the future of Nigeria’s democracy.
At the report launch held at the CISLAC Conference Hall, Abuja, TMG Chairman Auwal Ibrahim Musa Rafsanjani stated, “The 2023 General Election was supposed to be a benchmark for transparency and credibility, with innovations like BVAS and IReV and legal reforms.
“However, the process left most Nigerians questioning the way forward for democratization in our country.” He stressed that both INEC and the judiciary suffered severe reputational damage during and after the elections.
The report, titled “Telescoping Nigeria’s elections: 2023 election cycle in perspective”, highlights how the electoral commission’s failure to transmit polling unit results electronically as mandated by the Electoral Act 2022 opened the door to suspicions of manipulation.
“At the National Results Collation Centre, the INEC Chairman insisted on proceeding with result collation against requests by party agents to confirm electronically transmitted results. This brazen disregard undermined the process,” the report noted.
Rafsanjani also criticised the judiciary’s increasing role in deciding election outcomes, saying, “More than ever, the judiciary became an integral part of the elections with its own credibility coming under severe scrutiny. Questions emerged whether elections should be decided at the polls by the votes of citizens or by the technicalities of court cases.”
The report documents widespread pre-election undemocratic practices, including vote-buying during party primaries and electoral violence, which spilled into the general election. It also noted how political mobilisation along ethnic and religious lines affected voter turnout, with notably low participation in Northern Nigeria attributed to dissatisfaction with the incumbent government.
“Despite the introduction of technological tools like the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), the report acknowledged that “widespread failure to transmit polling unit results to the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal was reported,” contravening electoral law and undermining transparency.
Rafsanjani warned that the political landscape is deteriorating ahead of the 2027 elections, with politicians crossing party lines to create a de facto one-party system.
“The credibility of the 2027 election is already at stake. The ideals of fair competition that define democracy are threatened as the rights of the electorate to choose from many candidates are being dismantled,” he said.
The report also scrutinised off-cycle elections in Kogi, Bayelsa, and Imo states, questioning whether these polls demonstrated improvement or further decline in electoral integrity. While TMG acknowledged some professionalism by security agencies and voter enthusiasm, it cautioned against complacency, noting instances where politically exposed individuals allegedly misused security personnel for electoral infractions.
Rafsanjani called on all stakeholders, including international development partners, to intensify support for credible institutions and civil society organisations to safeguard Nigeria’s electoral future.
“The need for citizens to appreciate that poor elections lead to poor governance must be at the forefront of our efforts to resist political hijacking of the process,” he urged.
He said, “For all the commitments of citizens, budgetary provisions, development partners, and foreign governments, efforts must be properly channelled to bring about free, fair, and credible elections in 2027.”
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