A political storm is brewing ahead of the 2027 general elections as former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai delivered a blistering forecast that has rattled Nigeria’s political establishment.
Speaking with characteristic bluntness, El-Rufai warned that the worst-case scenario for the ruling camp would be a fractured first round with no outright winner, forcing the nation into a tense second-round runoff. In his stark projection, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would not even make the ballot for that decisive round.
“The worst-case scenario in 2027 is that no winner will emerge in the first round. We go for a runoff, and Tinubu will not be on the ballot because he will become a distant third. He has no pathway to win. I have done the maths,” El-Rufai declared.
The statement has reignited debate over electoral arithmetic, coalition politics, and voter sentiment, with analysts split on whether El-Rufai’s numbers reflect emerging realities or hardball political messaging. What is clear, however, is that the comments underscore growing anxieties within Nigeria’s political class about shifting alliances, voter fatigue, and a potentially unpredictable race.
As 2027 inches closer, El-Rufai’s warning adds fresh fuel to an already combustible contest—one that may yet test Nigeria’s electoral system and political resolve like never before.
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